By July 2019, a majority on the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee had come to believe that with no sign of inflation accelerating, they could safely cut the federal funds rate. The formal change came in August 2020 when they announced that they were adopting a flexible average inflation target (FAIT). Rather than viewing 2 percent as effectively a ceiling on inflation, they now would allow inflation to rise above 2 percent provided that it averaged 2 percent over an unspecified period. They also would no longer focus mainly on the unemployment rate in assessing the state of the labor market.
2019年7月，美联储所属的联邦公开市场委员会的多数人认为，在没有迹象显示通胀会加速的情况下，下调联邦基金利率是安全的。2020年8月，委员会宣布将采用灵活的平均通胀目标制。现在他们不再将2%视为通胀天花板，而是允许通胀率上升到2%以上，只要通胀率在期限不详的一段时间内均值保持在2%即可。他们在评估劳动力市场状态时也不再以失业率为主要标准。
There are two key problems with the Fed’s new monetary policy strategy. First, it’s unclear by how much inflation can exceed the 2 percent target or for how long it needs to stay there before the Fed will react. Second, by waiting until it has exceeded the 2 percent target, the Fed has abandoned the decades-long policy of preempting inflation.
美联储的新货币政策存在两个关键问题。第一，不清楚美联储在通胀率超过2%的目标值多少或多久时才会采取行动。第二，眼看着通胀率超过2%的目标值却不作为，美联储已然抛弃了长达数十年的先通胀而行的方针。
It seems unlikely that inflation can be brought down to 2 percent until the real federal funds rate becomes positive. While rapid increases in interest rates should succeed in reining in inflation, they are also likely to cause a recession. As Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has noted, in every similar case since 1960, when the Fed has had to respond to a rapid increase in inflation, the result has been a recession.
如今除非联邦基金利率上升，否则美国通胀率不可能降到2%。快速提高利率尽管可以抑制通货膨胀，但也会导致经济衰退。亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克指出，自1960年以来，每次类似的通胀率飙升迫使美联储采取应对措施，结果都是经济衰退。