Dr. Gal Luft:The world is pided to three groups of countries. The first group is the west plus some honorary members like Japan, Singapore and South Korea. The second are the so-called revisionists led by China and Russia, who are unapologetically pushing for a more equitable international system in which the “rest” are no longer living under the dictates of the “west.” The third group are where most of the countries are – non-aligned. Non-aligned countries stand to benefit most from the globalized system and want it to survive without being subjected to great power pressures, without being told with whom they can trade, what currency they should use or what technology they should adopt. The Ukraine war has sharpened the lines between the three groups. Out of almost 200 countries about 100 are in the non-aligned camp while the other 100 are split in half between the west and the revisionists. This is more or less the new architecture of global power. The coming years will be an epic struggle between the two camps with the non-aligned countries becoming increasingly squeezed in the middle, like a piece of cheese caught between two slices of bread. To me, India is the most interesting country to watch, not only because it is on its way to become the most populated country but because it is also the world’s largest democracy yet it does not seem to be willing to align itself with the west. India’s approach to the war in Ukraine has shocked Washington, which had assumed that the Indians are in their pocket. The events of recent weeks, with India not only unwilling to condemn Russia and join the sanctions but actually taking active steps to undermine the sanctions, will determine whether or not the US can rely on India for its Indo-Pacific ambitions, whether India becomes the linchpin of a new non-aligned movement or whether it joins China, Russia and possibly Brazil in the creation of an even bigger revisionist bloc led by BRICS.
美国能源安全理事会高级顾问:没有单一货币可以取代美元,但我们正迈向货币多极化(10)
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