Guancha: The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has caused energy prices to skyrocket to some extent, and the European natural gas futures price once approached $3,900/thousand cubic meters. Eight years ago, China and Russia signed a 30-year natural gas supply agreement, which cost only $350 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas. At present, in the face of soaring oil and gas prices in Europe and the pressure of global inflation, the US and Europe announced at the just-concluded NATO summit that they would continue to exert pressure on Russia and provide military support to Ukraine. As the war prolongs, people in Ukraine will not be the only one in Europe to suffer. To Europe, is American really a reliable and trustworthy ally?
Dr. Gal Luft: Henry Kissinger once said that “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” I think this is a good way to judge US-European relations. Many politicians say that the relations are grounded in “shared values,” which is generally true, but what really keeps the transatlantic alliance intact are shared interests. For America, a weak Europe is huge strategic opportunity, allowing Washington to reap many economic benefits for its corporations and forge an economically and militarily powerful western alliance which it can later expand to include Indo-Pacific allies. As a leader of such a broad alliance and with a weakened Russia, the US will be able to shift it sights to its number one strategic competitor – China – and establish permanent domination over the Pacific region. But in the longer run this alliance could become a liability for America. Europe’s economy is declining rapidly, facing heavy debt, slow growth, rising unemployment, and waves of millions of refugees. The danger for the US is that if Europe collapses under its own weight the US will have to invest growing resources in keeping it afloat and Europe could turn from an asset into a liability.
Guancha: I still can recall what you said when addressing to a Chinese panel before the US's Summit of Democracy, “promotion of democracy has been a fixture of US foreign policy for more than a century”. Recently you mentioned on your Twitter account: A new term born in the blob to describe the west+ honorary members: Advanced Industrial Democracy. You put it vividly as: India, you are not democratic enough. Turkey, you are not industrial enough. You must also be “advanced” to get in the elite club. Setting-rules is a self-claimed privilege of the US for many years. Will there be more followers in the game given the widening “Us and Them” game? Why or why not?